The fall of the Berlin Wall created a New World Order 30 years a

The most significant hopes and gains unlocked by the Berlin Wall’s fall, which was 30 years ago Saturday, are all at risk.

They included a historic expansion of democracies and open markets, a wave of globalization that created the greatest prosperity and largest global middle class the world has ever seen, and the enlargement the European Union, to 28 from 12 members, and NATO, to 29 from 16 – deepening ties among the world’s leading democracies.

That all brought with it the hope of what then-President George H.W. Bush called in 1989 “A Europe Whole and Free,” in which Russia could find its proper and peaceful place. Bush went even further in September 1990, after the UN Security Council had blessed the U.S.-led coalition’s war to free Kuwait from Iraqi invasion, envisioning a New World Order, “an era in which the nations of the world, East and West, North and South, can prosper and live in harmony.”

The idea had been hatched a month earlier by President Bush and General Brent Scowcroft, his national security adviser, while fishing near the president’s vacation home at Kennebunkport, Maine. They came home with three bluefish and an audacious vision that the Cold War’s end and the Persian Gulf Crisis presented a unique chance to build a global system against aggression “out of the collapse of the US-Soviet antagonisms,” in the words of General Scowcroft.

Reflecting on those heady days, Scowcroft recently told me that he felt everything he had worked for in his life was now at risk. If U.S. and European leaders don’t recover the common purpose they shared at that time – and there is yet little sign they will – this weekend’s Berlin Wall anniversary is more a moment for concern than celebration.

“Look at what is happening in the world,” French President Emmanuel Macron said in a freshly published interview in the Economist. “Things that were unthinkable five years ago. To be wearing ourselves out over Brexit, to have Europe finding it so difficult to move forward, to have an American ally turning its back on us so quickly on strategic issues; nobody would have believed this possible.”

This weekend’s 30th anniversary of the Berlin Wall’s fall provides a good moment to reflect on four reasons that event – one of freedom’s greatest historic triumphs – has failed to deliver on its full potential. Understanding that, might unlock a better path forward.

1. China’s authoritarian turn

Another thirtieth anniversary this year, the crushing of the Tiananmen Square protests in June 1989, might have had even more lasting consequences.

The regime’s attack on the pro-democracy movement, at a time when the Communist Party could have chosen greater liberalization over repression, ensured that the most important rising power of this century would be increasingly authoritarian in nature.

The lesson Beijing took from the Cold War’s end was that the Soviet Union had failed because it had liberalized its economy too little and its politics too much – a fatal combination. Economic liberalization and a growing Chinese middle class failed to bring with it the Western-style democratic freedoms that some thought would follow.

That doesn’t mean a New World Order can’t still be built with Beijing, but it will take considerable vision and patience to knit the two most important countries of our times together simultaneously, as strategic competitors and collaborators.

2. Revanchist Russia and the ‘Gray Zone Conflicts’

There’s a lot of finger pointing still about “who lost Russia” after the Cold War, whether it was Westerners who didn’t offer enough of an embrace or Russians who missed the opportunity.

Wherever you stand in that debate, the U.S. and its European allies failed to appreciate the potential or staying power of Putin, who has made it his life’s purpose to redress what he considered the biggest disaster of the 20th century, Soviet collapse.

At the same time, the enlargement of the European Union and NATO left behind a “gray zone” of 14 countries like Ukraine that were no longer in the Soviet bloc or Warsaw Pact but hadn’t been integrated into Western institutions.

French leader Macron has argued that it would be a huge mistake not to work to find more common ground with Russia. The difficulty is how to do so without selling out the democratic, sovereign hopes of Russia’s neighbors.

3. Europe’s lost momentum

Bill Emmott argues in Project Syndicate this week that the European Union’s biggest problem “is not Euroskepticism but indifference.”

He’s partially right: some 72% of French respondents in an opinion poll based on interviews with over 12,000 respondents across the 28 EU countries don’t think they would miss the EU as well as 67% of Italians and 60% of Germans.

That said, the EU also suffers from not having addressed design flaws that hobble it even as it has grown to its current size of 28 member states with 513 million citizens and a GDP of $18.756 trillion.

They include a monetary union without a fiscal union, immigration policies that allowed free movement inside the so-called Schengen Zone but too-porous external borders, and a failure to envision a world where the U.S. is losing interest, Russia remains a problem, and China is remaking global politics and economics.

Europe is “on the edge of a precipice,” Macron told the Economist. “If we don’t wake up … there’s a considerable risk that in the long run we will disappear geopolitically, or at least we will no longer be in control of our destiny. I believe that very deeply,” he stated.

4. The lack of US vision and strategy

The Berlin Wall’s fall in 1989 – taken together with Soviet collapse and the Cold War’s end – marked an inflection point of history for U.S. leadership globally that one can compare to 1919, the end of World War I, and 1945, the end of World War II, in its potential historic consequences.

U.S. and European leaders failed after 1919 to prevent the rise of European fascism, and then the Holocaust and World War II. The US got it more right than wrong in 1945 after World War II, creating the institutions and principles that paved the way for one of the world’s most sustained periods of relative peace and prosperity.

In his 1989 “A Europe Whole and Free”, President H.W. Bush underscored how “too many in the West, Americans and Europeans alike, seem[ed] to have forgotten the lessons of our common heritage and how the world we know came to be. And that should not be, and that cannot be.”

Thirty years later, the jury is still out on what the post-Cold War period will bring, but none of the post-Cold War presidencies – from President Bill Clinton to President Donald Trump – haveyet recognized the stakes or laid out a strategy commensurate to the risks.

 

source : cnbc


Indian court gives disputed religious site to Hindus

NEW DELHI/AYODHYA, India (Reuters) - India’s Supreme Court on Saturday awarded a bitterly disputed religious site to Hindus, dealing a defeat to Muslims who also claim the land that has sparked some of the bloodiest riots in the history of independent India.

 

The ruling in the dispute between Hindu and Muslim groups paves the way for the construction of a Hindu temple on the site in the northern town of Ayodhya, a proposal long supported by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling Hindu-nationalist party.

Representatives of the Muslim group involved in the case criticised the judgment as unfair and said it was likely to seek a review of the verdict.

In 1992 a Hindu mob destroyed the 16th-century Babri Mosque on the site, triggering riots in which about 2,000 people, most of them Muslims, were killed across the country.

Court battles over the ownership of the site followed.

 

Jubilant Hindus, who have long campaigned for a temple to be built on the ruins of the mosque, set off fire crackers in celebration in Ayodhya.

Thousands of paramilitary force members and police were deployed in Ayodhya and other sensitive areas across India and there were no immediate reports of unrest.

“This verdict shouldn’t be seen as a win or loss for anybody,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Twitter.

“May peace and harmony prevail!”

Still, the verdict is likely to be viewed as win for the Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its backers.

It comes months after Modi’s government stripped the Muslim-majority Jammu and Kashmir region of its special status as a state, delivering on yet another election promise to its largely Hindu support base.

Neelanjan Sircar, an assistant professor at Ashoka University near New Delhi, said the court ruling would benefit the BJP, which won re-election in May, but a slowing economy would ultimately take centre stage for voters.

“In the short term, there will be a boost for the BJP,” said Sircar. “These things don’t work forever ... Ram Temple isn’t going to put food on the table.”

Hindus believe the site is the birthplace of Lord Ram, a physical incarnation of the Hindu god Vishnu, and say the site was holy for Hindus long before the Muslim Mughals, India’s most prominent Islamic rulers, built the Babri mosque there in 1528.

 

The five-judge bench, headed by the Chief Justice Ranjan Gogoi, reached a unanimous judgment to hand over the plot of just 2.77 acres (1.1 hectares), or about the size of a soccer field, to the Hindu group.

 

The court also directed that another plot of 5 acres (2 hectare) in Ayodhya be provided to the Muslim group that contested the case.

Modi’s party hailed the ruling as a “milestone.”

“I welcome the court decision and appeal to all religious groups to accept the decision,” Home Minister Amit Shah, who is also president of the BJP, said on Twitter.

The Sunni Muslim group involved in the case said it would likely file a review petition, which could trigger another protracted legal battle.

“This is not a justice,” said the group’s lawyer, Zafaryab Jilani.

Muslim organisations appealed for calm.

The Hindu group Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh - the parent organisation of Modi’s party - had already decided against any celebrations to avoid provoking sectarian violence between India’s majority Hindus and Muslims, who constitute 14% of its 1.3 billion people.

Restrictions were placed on gatherings in some places and internet services were suspended. Elsewhere, police monitored social media to curb rumours.

Streets in Ayodhya were largely deserted and security personnel patrolled the main road to Lucknow, the capital of the northern state of Uttar Pradesh.

Ayodhya residents were glued to their televisions and mobile phones for news of the ruling, which delighted Hindus when it came.

“Everyone should come together to ensure that the construction work begins at the site without any delay,” roadside vendor Jitan Singh said over the chants of “Jai Shri Ram” (hail Lord Ram)

from fellow shop-keepers.

source : reuters 


North Korea hits out at \reckless\ US and South Korea, labels Ja

North Korea has lashed out against “reckless military moves” by South Korea and the US after they opted to go ahead with a joint aerial drill amid deteriorating relations with Pyongyang over stalled nuclear diplomacy talks. 

In a separate jibe, the North called Shinzo Abe, the Japanese prime minister, an “idiot and villain” who should not even dream of setting foot in Pyongyang after he criticised one of their recent weapons tests. 

The US and South Korea have cancelled or scaled back their regular joint military exercises since talks over the North’s nuclear and weapons programme began in 2018. 

Last year’s “Vigilant Ace” airforce drill was cancelled to allow diplomacy with Pyongyang some breathing space. However, the Pentagon confirmed on Thursday that a flying event would proceed in December on a reduced scope.  

"The most important thing to us in the Korean theatre is maintaining readiness, being ready to "fight tonight,"" said US Joint Staff Vice Director Navy Rear Admiral William Byrne.

"A year ago, we canceled the exercise Vigilant Ace, and that was based on the environment on the peninsula at the time. This year, we are conducting a combined flying event."

North Korea, which views any joint military ventures as a rehearsal for invasion, reacted with fury, warning that the exercise would amount to “throwing a wet blanket over the spark” of nuclear negotiations that are “on the verge of extinction.”

Kwon Jong Gun, a roving ambassador for the North, said on Thursday that its patience was nearing the limit and that North Korea “will never remain an onlooker” to “the reckless military moves.” 

Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, has set an end-of-year deadline for Washington to make progress on denuclearisation talks. 

Nuclear proliferation experts have warned that failure to do so could see a return to hostilities and a revival of nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests. 

 

Diplomacy between Pyongyang and Washington has not recovered from the failure of the Hanoi summit in February when Kim and Donald Trump, the US president, walked away with no deal. 

An attempt to kickstart working level negotiations in early October also ended without any progress or agreement for a future meeting, although Mark Lambert, the US envoy for North Korea did meet this week for five minutes with a senior regime official at a Moscow conference, reported Yonhap. 

Pyongyang reserved some of its ire on Thursday for Japan’s Prime Minister Abe after he criticised its test of a “super-large multiple rocket launcher” on October 31. Japan believes the test likely involved ballistic missiles that violated UN sanctions. 

"Abe is an idiot and villain as he is making a fuss as if a nuclear bomb was dropped on the land of Japan, taking issue with the DPRK"s [North Korea’s] test-fire of super-large multiple rocket launchers," the North"s KCNA state news agency said.

The statement, attributed to Song Il Ho, the North Korean ambassador for ties with Japan, put paid to Mr Abe’s stated ambition to meet Kim.

"Abe would be well-advised not to dream forever of crossing the threshold of Pyongyang as he hurled a torrent of abuse at the just measures of the DPRK for self-defence,” said the statement, according to Reuters.

 

source : news.yahoo


Social media disinformation, surveillance growing: watchdog

Governments around the world are increasingly using social media to manipulate elections and monitor their citizens, in a worrisome trend for democracy, a human rights watchdog said on Tuesday.

An annual report on online freedom by the nonprofit group Freedom House found evidence of "advanced social media surveillance programs" in at least 40 of 65 countries analyzed.

The report said global internet freedom declined for a ninth consecutive year, as authorities in some countries simply cut off internet access as part of their manipulation efforts, while others employed propaganda armies to distort information on social platforms.

"Many governments are finding that on social media, propaganda works better than censorship," said Mike Abramowitz, president of Freedom House.

"Authoritarians and populists around the globe are exploiting both human nature and computer algorithms to conquer the ballot box, running roughshod over rules designed to ensure free and fair elections."

Disinformation was the most commonly used tactic to undermine elections, according to the group.

"Populists and far-right leaders have grown adept not only at creating viral disinformation, but also at harnessing networks that disseminate it," said the watchdog"s 2019 "Freedom on the Net" report.

The researchers said that in 47 out of the 65 countries, individuals were arrested for political, social, or religious speech online and people were subjected to physical violence for their online activities in at least 31 countries.

China remained the world"s worst abuser of internet freedom for the fourth consecutive year as the government stepped up information controls amid protests in Hong Kong and ahead of the 30th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre, the report said.

Online freedom declined in 33 of the 65 countries assessed, including the United States, the survey found.

US freedom declines 

In the US, "law enforcement and immigration agencies expanded their surveillance of the public, eschewing oversight, transparency, and accountability mechanisms that might restrain their actions," Freedom House said.

"Officials increasingly monitored social media platforms and conducted warrantless searches of travelers" electronic devices to glean information about constitutionally protected activities such as peaceful protests and critical reporting."

The report said disinformation was rampant in the US, focusing on the November 2018 midterm elections, and that "both domestic and foreign actors manipulated content for political purposes, undermining the democratic process and stoking divisions in American society."

Freedom House said governments are relying more on artificial intelligence to monitor and censor people online.

"Once reserved for the world"s most powerful intelligence agencies, big-data spying tools are making their way around the world," said Adrian Shahbaz, Freedom House"s research director for technology and democracy.

"Advances in AI are driving a booming, unregulated market for social media surveillance. Even in countries with considerable safeguards for fundamental freedoms, there are already reports of abuse."

The biggest declines in internet freedom were in Sudan and Kazakhstan, followed by Brazil, Bangladesh, and Zimbabwe, the report said. Improvements were measured in 16 countries, with Ethiopia recording the largest gains.

Despite the grim outlook, Abramowitz cited some positive examples of technology spurring democratic change, including in Lebanon, where people "are rallying their fellow citizens" for reforms.

But the report also noted that some governments "restricted access to specific apps and platforms used by the opposition to mobilize, or resorted to shutting down the internet altogether."

 

source : news24


Relatives say at least 5 US citizens killed in north Mexico

MEXICO CITY — Relatives say at least five U.S. citizens, including four children, who live in a religious community in northern Mexico were killed in a shooting attack they suspect may have been a case of mistaken identity by drug cartel gunmen.

As many as 13 other members of La Mora — a decades-old settlement in Sonora state founded as part of an offshoot of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints — were missing after the attack on a convoy of three SUVs carrying community members, said a relative who asked not to be named for fear of reprisals.

The relative said he had located the burned-out, bullet-ridden SUV containing the remains of his nephew’s wife and her four children — twin 6-month old babies and two other children aged 8 and 10.

Authorities in Sonora state and the U.S. Embassy did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

 

Mexico’s federal Department of Security and Citizens’ Protection said security forces were reinforced with National Guard, army and state police troops in the area following “the reports about disappearance and aggression against several people.” The troops were searching for the missing community members, believed to include 11 children or more.

Another relative, Julian LeBaron, said on his Facebook page the dead woman was Rhonita Maria LeBaron.

The first relative said a convoy of three vehicles had set out Monday from La Mora, about 70 miles (110 kilometers) south of Douglas, Arizona, but was attacked by cartel gunmen in a possible case of mistaken identity by gunmen. Many of the church’s members were born in Mexico and thus have dual citizenship.

While he said he found the first vehicle, the other two SUVs were missing along with their passengers.

 

Jhon LeBaron, another relative, posted on his Facebook page that his aunt and another woman were dead, which could bring the death toll to at least seven. He also posted that six of his aunt’s children had been left abandoned but alive on a roadside.

It would not be the first time that members of the break-away church had been attacked in northern Mexico, where their forebears settled — often in Chihuahua state — decades ago.

In 2009, Benjamin LeBaron, an anti-crime activist who was related to those killed in Monday’s attack, was murdered in 2009 in neighboring Chihuahua state.

Copyright 2019 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

 

source : washingtonpost